Banking in 2050

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The report presents a set of quantitative projections of the size of the banking industry in the leading economies to 2050, based upon the underpinning macroeconomic trends in those countries. Projections of profitability are also presented. The report can be used by banking leaders to help shape their organisation’s strategy and to help identify potential opportunities and threats. The final section of the report presents a set of questions/strategic issues that the report identifies in connection with the main results, intended to initiate a discussion and to stimulate debate.
These results present an update to the banking projections we published in 2007. We have updated the analysis to take account of the effects of the financial crisis. In our report we show that the financial crisis has played an important role in speeding up the transition of economic power from the developed economies to the emerging economies.
Key results:

  •  The emerging economies’ banking sectors are expected to outgrow those in the developed economies by an even greater margin than we projected before the financial crisis.
  • By 2050 ‘E7’ could have domestic banking assets and profits that exceeding the G7 by around 50%.
  • China could overtake the US in terms of the size of their domestic banking sectors by around 2023.
  • India has particularly strong long-term growth potential; it could become the third largest domestic banking sector by 2050 after China and the US